Market regime dashboard
Is the S&P 500 trending or mean-reverting right now — and how stressed is the tape? This dashboard reads the market's regime from a handful of complementary, model-free signals, updated nightly.
What it measures
- Rolling Hurst exponent — whether SPY is trending, mean-reverting, or effectively random. What is the Hurst exponent?
- VIX term structure — the 3M−1M slope; contango in calm markets, backwardation under stress. VIX term structure explained
- Regime Markov chain — a 10-year study of how SPY regimes transition, and why "Neutral" is a pause that resumes the prior regime. The regime Markov-chain study
- Ehlers MAMA/FAMA — an adaptive moving average that changes speed with the market's dominant cycle. MAMA/FAMA explained
- ADX(14) trend strength and the economic cycle — the yield curve, credit spreads, jobs, inflation and GDP. Yield curve inversion explained
- US equity breadth — daily counts of stocks up and down 4%, the 10-day 4% ratio, quarterly 25% movers and T2108 (% above the 40-day average), over a point-in-time universe of US common stocks including delisted names.
An optional AI read summarizes the whole board in plain English. This is research tooling, not investment advice.